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Who Will Win the Big Game? Characteristics That Can Determine the NBA & NHL Champions
The 2009-2010 NBA Finals and NHL Stanley Cup Finals are in full swing. What factors ultimately determine the championship? What characteristics can help decide which team wins the top prize? Sports fans might be interested in the sports analysis of this article. Sports organizations and executives may be interested in learning more about our research projects and how we can help teams optimize their chances of winning.
After analyzing NFL, NBA, Major League Baseball and NHL championship games or series, and major finals in golf and tennis, in our book, Who Will Win the Big Game? Psychological and mathematical method” identified 50 characteristics of championships. .” Based on similar research, we focused on several championship characteristics that could help predict NHL and NBA Finals winners.
In this article, we focus on dynamics such as leadership, defense, and consistency. These factors are of particular interest for this year’s finals – and they apply to every major sport we’ve studied.
Leadership
Leadership, both behind the bench and on the field, has proven to be statistically significant in their relationship to winning championships. Our research has shown that there are certain coaches who have the ability to motivate their teams to excel. There are more coaches like the Lakers’ Phil Jackson and better Finals records than a random math model would predict. Phil Jackson is 10-2 in the NBA Finals as a coach. Other examples include Red Auerbach, John Wooden, Chuck Knoll, Bobby Bowden, Scotty Bowman and Al Arbor – all coaches with more than 500 Finals appearances.
Leadership on the court is also key. Over the past 20 years, the team with the better offensive star, as measured by points per game, has gone 14-6 (70.0%) to the NBA Championship. This factor favors the Lakers and Kobe Bryant with his average of 27.0 points per game during the season.
Similarly, hockey teams with better offensive leadership have gone 19-11 (63.3%) in points scored in the Stanley Cup Final over the last 30 years. This factor favors the Black Hawks and Patrick Kane (88 points) over the Flyers and Mike Richards (62 points).
Defense
In almost every sport we’ve studied, defense actually wins championships. Our research has shown that this is true in both the Super Bowl and the World Series. This principle also proves true in the Stanley Cup Finals and the NBA Championship. Over the past 30 years, the hockey team with the better goaltending percentage has gone 18-11 (62.2%). In recent years, since the high-scoring period of the mid-1980s through the mid-1990s, hockey defense has been an even stronger dynamic. Teams with a higher percentage of success left:
• 3-0 over last 4 years (teams had same save percentage one year),
• 6-1 in last 8 years,
• and 13-4 over the past 18 years.
This factor favors the Philadelphia Flyers with their .907 save percentage over the Chicago Black Hawks and their .903 save percentage.
Defense also helps basketball teams win championships. We notice that, on average, defensive factors are more correlated with winning championships than offensive factors. Over the past 20 years, the team with the better defense, as measured by points per game, has gone 13-7 (65.0%) in the NBA Championship. This factor favors the Celtics (95.6 points per game) this season. The Lakers surrendered 97.0 points per game during the regular season.
Consistency factors
Another key to winning is consistency. Interestingly, this type of “consistency factor” is usually associated with “less exciting heroics” than most sports fans would expect. For example, in baseball, our research shows that batting average is more correlated with winning the World Series than home runs.
Similarly, in the NBA Finals, field goal percentage is more important than three-point shooting percentage. Over the past 20 years, the team with the better field goal percentage has gone 12-7 (63.2%) in pro basketball championship series. This factor favors the Celtics this year with their 48.3% FG% to the Lakers 45.7%.
2010 Championship and Finals Factors
So who will win the Stanley Cup Finals? The No. 2 Blackhawks are heavy favorites over the No. 7 seed Flyers (about 2.5-1 favorites), but the Flyers certainly have the power on the bench and between the sticks to make it a series.
The NBA Finals present an interesting dilemma. The leading factors point to the Lakers (coaching and stellar leadership), but other factors (defense and consistency) favor the Celtics.
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