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Sri Lanka is Slated to Win the World Cup 2007

Sri Lanka plays cricket like chess. They played to their maximum potential on the pitch like no other, but behind their World Cup campaign you would notice a cunning strategist. We have discussed their strategy before and have always backed them to become finalists.

In fact, New Zealand copied them too and kept Styris and Oram out of their match against Australia – beautiful copy – because if they met Australia again they would have a different team than the one that lost to Australia. The Super 8 ensures that the winning team has no psychological advantage.

Finally, Australia and Sri Lanka are in the final. Full marks to both for a tireless campaign. If you see on both, there is a difference in the way they approach matches. Australia approach them in the office like fashion and play to their full potential every time. Here is the difference. Sri Lanka play a different game in key matches. Murali’s smile widens, as does his seriousness. Vaas and Malinga don’t give even a small space in the first 10 overs. And this strategy has not yet been exposed to Australian openers. Sri Lanka are also tightening the screws in the middle overs through Murali and Jayasuriya (who looks like the easiest target for the batsmen among these tough bowlers, hence the batsmen trying to get kills and wickets starting to fall). Sri Lanka and Australia are the only teams who are not trying to keep the score, their only aim is to get the team out.

It’s not about playing to potential, it’s more about not exposing your cards, especially the Joker (Lasith Malinga in this case).

There are 2 theoretical possibilities:

1. Joker plays to the potential and destroys the Australian batting line-up 2. The Australian team is so focused on destroying Joker that other bowlers destroy the team.

It’s not whether they can win or not, but it’s in their best interest not to show their Joker, which incidentally is also their least undocumented and explored weapon. It might not work for weaker teams, but when you have Vaas and Murali in attack, you can take those chances.

In comparison, Australia are mentally weaker in the spin department – with the departure of Shane Warne, the big man of the matches. Hogg, who is sort of a similar unexposed/undocumented weapon at their end, isn’t exactly categorized as an ‘other’ bowler in terms like Murali at Malinga. And without much exposure on stage – I expect Jayasuriya (if McGrath doesn’t get him) to take him to the cleaners. It will be an interesting battle anyway.

Onedayers.com has a different ranking than ICC and I am sure if you follow this you will be better at predicting World Twenty20. I used the same system to predict the following:

Before the World Cup, Ireland ranked 6th. It predicted that Bangladesh’s bowling attack would be one of the best in the World Cup (as their batting was not up to the same standard). It also established Sri Lanka as a team to watch ahead of the World Cup if Jayasuriya maintains his form. It predicted Jayasuriya as a man to watch!

There was no guesswork, but this rating system was used. Well, I would put my money on Sri Lanka in the final match as both teams have a successful set of bowlers and batsmen but Sri Lanka have huge diversity in bowling.

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