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World Cup Picks

The most popular sporting event on the planet is finally upon us. Not only will billions of soccer fans watch this tournament, they will also play in it. Bookmakers expect this year’s World Cup to be the most-bet event of the year. Of course we plan to get a piece of the action. Here’s a rundown of some of our best bets from each World Cup group:

Group A (Germany, Poland, Ecuador, Costa Rica)

Ecuador to finish 2nd (+330)

Assuming Germany wins the group easily, the second qualifying spot will be up for grabs. Most expect Poland to take second place, but it’s not as simple as the odds suggest. Poland lacked depth and were lackluster in qualifying. As the third best team in South America, don’t underestimate Ecuador’s potential. Second place is a coin toss between Poland and Ecuador so jump on the value price in Ecuador at +330

Group B (England, Sweden, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago)

Sweden to qualify (-250)

Sweden was the highest scoring European team in the World Cup qualifiers with an average of 3 gpg. Their defense is less impressive but not catastrophic and they have above average goaltending skills. Sweden must get past Paraguay to advance to the next round. A loss to England and an easy win over minnows Trinidad will be enough for them. But the Swedes are still capable of beating England and may even surprise with the first place.

Group C (Argentina, Holland, Ivory Coast, Serbia and Montenegro)

Serbia and Montenegro qualify (+225)

The Serbians had by far the best defense of any team in the qualifiers. They are a strong, well organized side and are dangerous on the counter attack. Expect them to upset favorites Holland and Argentina and pull off surprising results.

Group D (Portugal, Mexico, Iran, Angola)

Top Scorer Jared Borgetti (+650)

Iran and Angola could be the whipping boys of this group, and whenever that happens there’s a good chance of some shootouts. Mexico’s talismanic forward Jared Borgetti has a natural flair for goals and with the Mexicans playing freely, he could have had several opportunities. Definitely worth it for the price.

Group E (Italy, Czech Republic, USA, Ghana)

Italy to finish bottom (16/1)

Italy could be the shock of the tournament, just like France at the World Cup in 2002. The Italians are fielding a side full of old-timers with their best records behind them. With the recent Serie A betting scandal hanging over them, the team will be suspended from this tournament. We know how often Italians draw matches in international tournaments. To finish bottom, they can draw against the USA and Ghana and lose to the Czech Republic. That’s hardly far-fetched and definitely worth a shot at 16/1.

Group F (Brazil, Croatia, Japan, Australia)

Japan will finish at the bottom (+110)

Brazil and Croatia should finish in the top two spots, leaving a battle between Japan and Australia for third place. Coached by one of the best coaches in the world, Guus Hiddink, the Aussies have a natural advantage. Japan have struggled to finish and should find this group frustrating.

Group G (France, Switzerland, South Korea, Togo)

Switzerland to qualify (-150)

This has to be the strongest selection from the group stages. Togo is a hopeless side and is happy to be here. South Korea is a shadow of the team it was four years ago. Without home advantage, they will look like an average side. Even France has an aging squad that is by no means guaranteed to hold onto the top spot. The Swiss are a quality team that can make it to the later stages of this tournament.

Group H (Spain, Ukraine, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia)

Total group goals under 17.5 (-143)

The bookies expect Saudi Arabia to be their usual selves, conceding four or five goals a game. It shouldn’t be like that this time. The Saudis hired a Brazilian coach and focused obsessively on defense. This is at the expense of other aspects of their game, but regardless, they will concede far fewer goals in this tournament. Tunisia are not usually involved in high-scoring matches, and neither Ukraine nor Spain are exactly scoring powerhouses. This line projects 2.91 goals per game, which is way too many.

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