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ICC World Cup 2011 Quarter-Final: Losing The Toss At Ahmedabad Could Help India

Indian captain Dhoni is not known for winning the toss. That said, he had mixed fortunes in the league stage of the 2011 ICC World Cup, winning and losing three toss.

We often say before a match that the toss is decisive; what we really mean is that the team that bats first will have an inherent advantage. In other words, we expect the captain who wins the toss to choose to bat. This assumption should probably make it easier for readers to understand the title of this article. Especially when you consider that Ponting belongs to the “bat first” school of toss-winning skippers.

I am definitely in favor of having India’s first mission in Ahmedabad. And I’m not sure Dhoni would have opted to bowl had he won the toss in the quarter-final against Australia. The ghost of 2003 – when Ganguly opted to play in the World Cup final – continues to haunt the Indian team.

Circumstances are completely different now. Australia’s batting is not as strong as it was in 2003 or even 2007 when Gilchrist and Hayden were at the top of their order. While Watson is capable of blistering innings, he doesn’t have the innings-building capacity of Hayden and doesn’t change his starts as often as his team would like. With India likely to open with a spinner, you are likely to see a cautious start to Australia’s innings rather than the two seamers operating together.

Ponting was the hero of India’s defeat in 2003 and his woeful lack of form should give Dhoni the guidance he needs on what to do should he win the toss. Another factor that could help Dhoni’s decision is the failure of the Aussie lower middle order, with Cameron White in disappointing form and Smith not doing much in his ODI career apart from one or two. However, the situation could change if Australia pick David Hussey in place of either of them.

As Pat Symcox pointed out after South Africa successfully chased their target against India, most of the wickets in this World Cup have lasted a long way, unlike in the past when it was about “win the toss and win the match”, especially in day and night games where the chase under the lights is an ordeal best avoided.

So India’s best option is to put the Australians in and bowl them out for a manageable total, something that is eminently possible as the Pakistanis once showed us.

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