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Football Betting – End-of-Season Games
Everyone loves a trier, especially when it comes to delaying preparations. There is nothing more frustrating for a bettor than to realize that your pick was “not out” and that you didn’t even get a fair shot at the money.
Widespread TV coverage and greater transparency on betting exchanges have raised awareness of the ‘netrier’ issue in horse racing, but football bettors also need to be wary. It’s clear that all is not well in the world of football, judging by the recent match-fixing scandal in Germany involving referee Robert Hoyzer, ongoing investigations into some Italian results and irregular betting patterns on obscure European and international matches.
Fortunately, the consistency of results in the bigger leagues (and especially in England) suggests there is no reason for punters to lack confidence. The main problem – as in horse racing – lies on the fringes, in those matches (or races) that are not exposed to the full glare of the media spotlight and where the shenanigans are less likely to arouse suspicion.
Everyone is trying very hard
However, my research suggests that the “netters” problem rears its ugly head at the end of the season, even in the major leagues. Most leagues are competitive enough to ensure that the battles for championships, places in Europe and safety from relegation go down to the wire.
However, some teams inevitably have nothing to play for in the final weeks of the season, which is where problems can arise.
The last few weekends of the league season offer three types of matches:
1. Matches between two teams that have nothing to play for.
2. Matches between two teams where there is a lot to play for.
3. Matches between one team with something to play for and one team with nothing to play for.
Out of focus
The determination of both teams cannot be taken for granted in the first category, so the most sensible betting strategy at the end of the season is to focus on categories two and three.
Matches in the second category should be scored using your usual techniques. (Anyone not familiar with this needs to read our football betting articles on inside-edge-mag.co.uk – Ed) but the best betting opportunities often lie in tier three where there is always potential for a ‘non-trier’ . ‘.
That’s not to say there’s anything secret going on in these games, just that a slight drop in focus from one team can make the difference in a competitive league like the English Premiership.
There could be many reasons for this drop in focus – including the widely held belief that some players are “on holiday” before the end of the season. It is equally likely that, given the demands of modern football, an injured player will be rested once his team has nothing to play for, or that there may be some relaxation in training. Whatever the reasons, our results at the bottom of this article show that a team with something to play for is more likely to win a match against a team with nothing to play for.
Across the top three English divisions and major European leagues we analyzed (Spanish League, German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1), these matches typically produce a 50-60% win rate for the team with something to play for and victory. a rate of 20-30% for a team that has nothing to play for. The stats vary a bit from year to year and league to league, but overall they are pretty consistent.
It is debatable that such numbers offer conclusive evidence of the netrier effect, but there is one major piece of supporting evidence that changes the issue for me. If there was no correlation between the results and the urgency of one team’s points in such matches, we would expect a higher win rate among the higher ranked teams than among the bottom struggling teams because that is what happened in the rest of the game. season. In fact, the win rates for teams fighting to avoid relegation are abnormally high in such late-season fixtures – virtually comparable to the win rates achieved by top-table teams chasing title places in Europe. or playoff slots.
Fight for survival
For example, the last five seasons of the English Premiership have produced a 55% win rate for teams with something to play for. This number does not change, regardless of whether the team is in the top six or the bottom six.
It’s a similar story in other leagues, although the win rates of relegation-threatened teams in such games tend to be slightly lower overall than those at the top of the table.
So do these stats in themselves offer a good betting opportunity? The simple answer is no, but there are a few tweaks that can put these numbers to good use.
First, let’s look at the big picture. A 55% win rate would provide a net profit margin if the average odds available were even, but this is unlikely to be the case in matches where one team has something to play for and the other does not.
Considering the games that fell into this category last season in our selected leagues, a bet on the level of the bets on all the teams with something to play for would be a small loss. This was partly due to the lower than average win rate of these teams last season, but a more significant factor is the reduced odds bettors are being asked to take on such teams.
How to beat the odds
Bookmakers generally take into account the “nothing to play for” syndrome when pricing games at the end of the season, although a few have slipped through the net. If you’re good at building your own matchbook, you can spot these matches – otherwise, you’ll find it difficult to turn a profit by having something to play for.
The counter argument, of course, is that the value lies in backing against these sides, given that teams with nothing to play for will be available at artificially inflated odds in such matches. However, this does not hold up, given the lower win rates of these teams. The problem for punters, as outlined earlier, is knowing whether these teams will try hard enough – the evidence suggests they won’t on the whole.
So how can we beat the odds? Well, a little more digging into the stats will take into account the general assumptions that are often made about late season games.
Starting at the top, the league champions’ end-of-season records are very revealing. There is clear evidence that once a title is arithmetically secured, there is a widespread tendency for champions to take their foot off the gas. For example, last season the Spanish and German champions were confirmed with two games to play – Valencia and Werder Bremen, the respective winners, then promptly lost their final two games.
This is far from an isolated example. In 2001, Manchester United lost their last three games as they ran away with the title, although it has to be said that they finished with four straight wins when they were in the same position the previous season.
Overall, however, the records of already crowned champions suggest that they are prone to slacking off once they win a race. In the leagues analyzed here, champions’ win rates over the course of a season typically exceed 60%.
Once the title was secured, that average dropped to an average of 57% over the last five seasons. And the fall is even more dramatic in games where they face a team with a lot to play for – their win rate then averages just 45%.
Tons of profit
So it’s generally worth going up against already crowned champions. Last season, this approach would have yielded a 24% profit in settling bets in the leagues listed here. If you were to focus only on games where the opposing team still had something to play for, the strike rate in the Champions League would be 100% and a whopping 125% profit on even bets.
The only caveat is to be wary of any factor that may cause the champions to continue to be under pressure – one example being Arsenal last season when they were Premiership champions with four games to go but looking to maintain their unbeaten record. They have done so, but only with a 50% win rate in their last four games (two wins, two draws).
Another factor could be when a lower division side is chasing a milestone such as 100 points – this was the case with Wigan Athletic in the old Division 2 in 2003 when they reached three figures with two wins and a draw even though they were already champions.
Knowing that champions will falter once they have nothing to play for, it’s easy to assume that already relegated sides must be even more prone to it. The reality is again more complicated.
Overall, in the leagues analyzed here, relegated teams have a 23% win rate once mathematically doomed – very close to the average expected of relegation zone teams over the course of a season. In other words, they don’t fall apart once all hope is gone.
In fact, relegated teams have surprisingly good home records in the final weeks of the season. At home they manage a fairly even split of wins, draws and losses on average, and in none of the leagues do their home defeats outweigh their total wins and draws, so relegation teams are always worth a look on the Asian Handicap. home because they rarely, if ever, give up the start to their opponents.
Where they perform very poorly is away from home. Even more telling, they are usually lambs to the slaughter (home or away) versus teams that still have a lot to play for. Their loss rate in such matches is 70% and in the last five seasons no relegated team has recorded a single win in this type of fixture in the top leagues of France, England and Germany.
This 70% loss rate is equivalent to the odds of their opponents being around 2/5 or 4/9. Bookies are stingy with such teams, although last season you could have made a profit by backing relegation teams in such matches. By being extra selective about the odds you are prepared to accept (say no less than 1/2), there is potential to make money on these games.
Mid-table teams are an area to tread carefully. While the stats show punters can generally count on sides scrapping for top spots or fighting relegation, that’s not the case for teams that find themselves mid-table in the final few games of the season, with no incentive to move up and no fear . dropping down a few places.
The last word
In the leagues analyzed here, mid-table teams’ win rates in their last matches don’t seem too bad, averaging 33%, which is roughly in line with their overall season record.
However, the picture is not so rosy when the numbers are narrowed down to games against teams that still have a lot to play for. Mid-table safe teams’ win rate drops to 26% and their loss rate increases to 49% (out of 41% overall).
Finally, end of season betting depends on available odds. Pricing these games is a difficult process and it is impossible to come up with hard and fast rules for when to bet or what odds to accept. However, evaluating basic statistics is important because late-season games do not follow the normal rules of form and are in many cases a law unto themselves. The only golden rule is: be sure that you know that your choice will try.
More football betting articles
- Football Betting – End of Season Games
- Football betting – betting on the run
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