2010 Fifa World Cup Tickets Sold Per Country Do Not Bet Against the South African Rand in 2010

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Do Not Bet Against the South African Rand in 2010

South Africa’s economy will face a challenging 2010. While South Africa has weathered the international economic disasters of the past 18 months, it has not been unscathed. Many indicators point to a positive 2010. The “science” of economics is (in my view) primarily a social science, but there are a number of positive comments and reports that I would like to point out.

In the December 28, 2009 edition of the Bangkok Post, Michael Preiss, chief investment adviser at Standard Chartered Private Bank, wrote the following: “US dollar borrowing to invest in Brazilian reals returned 40% net/net, the best carry trade of 2009, followed by the South African rand with 33%”

Given that the Rand will be less volatile next year, returns such as those above cannot be expected. However, I believe that the outlook for the Rand and the South African economy should not be underestimated.

On December 21, the South African Reserve Bank released its latest leading indicator – it grew at a faster pace in October than in September. The headline indicator combines a range of measures including, but not limited to, production hours worked, construction plans approved and vehicles sold. Business Day’s Michael Belby writes: “After a bumpy start to the year, the trend is firmly up”. Commenting on the SARB’s headline indicator, Elna Moolman, group economist at Barnard Jacobs Mellet, said: “At the start of the year when it started to pick up, it was mainly the financial market components that supported it, but now it’s quite broad. is very encouraging”.

South Africa’s inflation rate is expected to moderate in 2010. According to the University of Stellenbosch’s Bureau of Economic Research, the CPI will moderate to 5.7 percent in 2010, down from 7.2 percent in 2009. The 4th quarter of 2009 saw an increase in Rand’s Bureau of Economic Research Business Confidence Index Merchant Bank. TradeInvestSA’s JP van der Merwe points out that this is the first increase since Q3 2009.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook was published in October. The IMF forecasts SA’s economy to grow by 1.7% in 2010. This is a modest forecast, and while it may seem like a bleak forecast from the IMF, JP van der Merwe notes that the IMF is praising South Africa for its fiscal policy, future growth prospects and the resilience of South Africa’s banking sector.

The 2010 ‘africapractice survey’ was published on 15 December. This is a survey of business leaders across Africa. All respondents expected an increase in foreign direct investment in 2010. 95% of business leaders expected their businesses to grow in the following year. And while many respondents were optimistic about the World Cup, most felt the benefits would be limited to South Africa.

I second the words of Jacob Zuma:

“2010 must be the year in which we all tell the world for the first time the positive news about our country – the achievements and the possibilities. We must put the culture of negativity behind us.”

South Africa’s economy will face challenging challenges in 2010.

Despite and despite these challenges, all bets are on

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