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Soccer Predictions – How Can You Beat the Bookies?
While bookmakers are constantly improving their football prediction methods and trying to avoid payouts, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There is no million dollar answer. However, there are two ways you can beat the bookies. One way is to analyze non-measurable compliance information. Another way is to improve the statistical prediction models used by bookmakers.
The first method requires data analysis such as match type or priority, which is not used in statistical models. Among the most significant factors that can affect the outcome of a football match are:
- Type of match which can be an international/national league, cup or friendly match. Cup finals are particularly profitable for you, where the media picks the favourites, and a better-informed bettor can profit from betting on highly valued underdog teams.
- Match priority. Each team must define their priority for the upcoming matches, as team resources are limited. European national cups are a good example for the best teams in low priority games.
- Match time is important because soccer predictions are usually inaccurate at the beginning and end of the season.
- players injuries, illnesses and transfers especially in the case of key players. Bookmaker odds are usually calculated before this information is available.
- European leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are considered predictable. The English and German leagues are particularly erratic at the beginning and end of the season.
- Other factors there are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendances, weather conditions and of course pure chance.
Analyzing all this information for each match would be a complicated and time-consuming task. An alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which are improvements to the bookmaker’s prediction models.
Why can their models be further improved? First of all, when you carefully analyze the predictions of bookmakers, it is easy to notice that their models are based on average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It is clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when team skills are varied. So if you take into account the dynamics of team skills, you can increase your profit by placing a bet on highly valued underdogs.
Second, bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the offensive and defensive strength of soccer teams and do not take into account that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. Once you learn the difference between attacking and defensive strength, you can easily predict the total goals and beat the bookies in the under/over bets.
Statistical models that have been developed over the past few years explain historical match results in terms of changing skill and strategy. Bookmakers do not use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict up to 70% of matches, outperforming bookmakers’ predictions, whose accuracy is much lower.
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