2011 Cricket World Cup Final Sri Lanka Team Is the D & L Method For Runs Adjustment Context Sensitive?

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Is the D & L Method For Runs Adjustment Context Sensitive?

The D & L method used to adjust runs required in a shortened game now does not allow the other team to gain a significant advantage or disadvantage. We have seen situations where the team batting second in shortened games had to score the required number of runs directly equal to the first team’s batting rate. This gave the other batting team a significant advantage as they knew they had to score.

So if the team’s batting first picked up toward the end of the inning, they would lose the advantage. Now, the D & L method adjusts the runs that are made based on historical data, i.e. data that has been collected from previous games. However, it does not focus on the trend of the game that is going on right now.

For example, the D&L method made Pakistan win the ODI against India chasing 339.

In all likelihood, they would have been bowled out before scoring 339, as only once has any team managed to score more than 339 to win a match (South Africa vs Australia).

Similarly, the D&L method has significantly skewed the results in favor of teams batting first. This is mainly due to the sudden adjustment to the required run rate once the game is shortened or shortened. If the other batting team is well on their way to victory, then sometimes they suddenly face a daunting target.

The D&L method is also not good to use when games are abandoned due to unexpected factors such as unruly crowd, bat height etc. During a rain affected game, the team batsman may assume that he must be at the D&L equivalent. But what happens when the game is abandoned for unexpected reasons. The other team has no way of predicting that such incidents will occur.

Let’s also consider when the team most likely to lose is declared the winner thanks to the D&L method. For example, the team is 200 for 8 in 32 overs, it seems hopeless for the team to reach 280 runs in 50 overs as 2 overs have to follow, but now it is raining and the game is abandoned. The second team is declared the winner as they are ahead of the D & L equivalent after 32 overs. So the outcome of the game was changed.

Let’s take another example where a team that would in all likelihood lose is declared the winner by the D&L method. For example, the team is 200 for 4 in 32 overs, it seems hopeless for the team to reach 280 runs in 50 overs as they have out of form batsmen to follow. Also, some opposition bowlers are suddenly bowling good sessions. Now it’s raining and the game is over. The second team is declared the winner as they are ahead of the D & L equivalent after 32 overs. So the outcome of the game was changed.

Let’s take an example when the game suddenly stops/leaves. The team’s first batting is 130 for no loss after 22 overs. The game is abandoned. D & L’s equivalent is 131 after 22 overs. Now most likely 130 for no loss the team batting second would have won the game but was declared lost.

In short, the D & L method should not significantly change the outcome in favor of the team. Secondly, the strength of the players, i.e. their current form, must be taken into account. Simply considering adjustments based on historical data is not enough. It must be sensitive to the current game, the current session and the current form of the players, and more importantly, it should not change the easily predictable original result.

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