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Bookmakers Soccer Predictions – 2008 vs 2009
Bookmakers use their own soccer prediction models. Their odds are usually calculated in a way that minimizes the payouts of the match favorites. The accuracy of these predictions can be analyzed by comparing the betting odds with the actual results of football matches.
This article compares the accuracy of football bookmakers’ predictions in 2008/09 and the first half of 2009/10. The comparison is based on average betting odds from the top European football leagues.
Data and methods
To compare the accuracy of bookmaker predictions, the authors of this article analyzed the match results and average betting odds of the following 10 major European football leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier League, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier League, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Superlig.
The result of the match was estimated based on the average payout offered by bookmakers for that match. The possible profit of a bettor betting on the bookies’ favorites was calculated according to the average betting odds.
summary
The conclusion was that bookmakers successfully predicted the outcome of more than 54% of matches in the 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons. The average accuracy of football predictions by bookmakers is therefore quite high in the case of major European leagues. However, the low profits make these predictions highly unprofitable as betting tips.
Betting 1×2:
— Losses of -4% and -2% were estimated for bettors using fixed odds as betting tips.
— The only profitable league during these two seasons was the Austrian Bundesliga (+14% and +6% profit) with more than 60% correct match predictions.
— The most unprofitable leagues were the Scottish Premier (-22% and -6%) and the German Bundesliga (-11% and -6%).
— The most drastic improvement in profit from 1×2 betting was seen in the Dutch Eredivisie league, where profit changed from -11% to +8%.
— The most drastic drop in profits from 1×2 betting was seen in the Turkish Super Lig, where the profit changed from +4% to -18%.
Total under/over bets are the most losing:
— Total losses under/over 2.5 were almost the same during both seasons, equaling 10%.
The bottom line is that using bookmaker soccer predictions as betting tips does not pay off in day betting. Although the accuracy of their predictions is high, their odds do not lead to betting profits.
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