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Soccer Betting – How To Make A Profit
Main page with top picks and tips from hundreds every week:
Many soccer (soccer for our American friends) tips and tricks only provide a few tips/tips a week, some just one, with many charging huge sums for the privilege. In this article, I’ll show you how to get the best out of hundreds of free and cheap tips and tricks every week by answering these four questions.
What if you were able to pick the absolute best picks out of hundreds of weekly tips/tips, greatly increasing your chances of success?
What if these tips/tips are selected based on the past performance of similar tips/tips and all these tips/tips are created using a combination of several proven statistical methods?
What if you know whether draw predictions, home predictions or away predictions are more successful for English Premier League, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga or many other leagues across Europe?
What if you could do it all for FREE or at very low cost?
So now you can. If you are interested, read on.
Some tips are better than others:
Using well established statistical methods along with automated software it is possible to generate hundreds of football tips every week for many leagues, in theory you could cover every major league in the world. So why do you want to do this? Sure, many of the tips will be grossly inaccurate, but on the other hand, many will be right, so how can you tell which ones will be successful and which ones won’t? It would be much better to focus on just one or two matches and predict their outcome with intense and careful focused analysis.
At first glance the above answers I have seen over the years have some merit and deserve careful consideration, there is a good argument to be made for focused analysis of a single match to try to predict its outcome. But consider this, when a scientist performs a statistical analysis, how many data items does he select as a representative sample? One, two… or more? When performing statistical analysis, the more data you have to process, the better the result. For example, if you wanted to calculate the average height of a class of school children, you could take the top two or three as a sample. But if they’re all six feet tall, they’re going to be highly unrepresentative, so of course you’d get all their heights and average them, resulting in a much more accurate answer. It’s a simplified example, but I hope you get my point. Obviously, you can apply this argument to a single match by collecting past results for each side and performing statistical analysis techniques with that data, but why limit your analysis to this one match?
We know when we create hundreds of auto-picks based on proven statistical methods that some will be successful and some will not. So how do we focus on the best picks, the ones most likely to be right, and how do we do it week after week? Well, the answer is to keep track of how each tip performs, some tips are better than others and we want to know which ones. If you are thinking at this stage how can I calculate all this information for every match in every league I want to cover and do it every week then don’t worry I will show you how it is all done for you. at the end of the article.
The results are not always the same:
Simply keeping records of how each of the hundreds of picks we make actually fares against the bottom line isn’t enough. Now we need a way to analyze this data and logically group it together to get the best out of it. The results are not always the same, in other words a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and the same possible outcome for match B does not necessarily produce the same result (ie a correct prediction or a wrong prediction). Why is that? There are hundreds of reasons why and you will never be able to explain them all, if you could you would no doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match, you can look at such qualitative things as each team’s current injury list, team roster, player morale, etc. We can also look at quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of a match, so we can look on such things as past performance, league position or more proven statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can use all this information to predict the outcome of match A and the outcome of match B and still not have the same outcome. Part of the reason is, as explained earlier, that we can’t account for all the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s something else, something we can explain that we haven’t thought about yet.
When we look at one match in isolation we only look at the factors relating to each of the two teams in the match, but why not expand and look at the performance of the other teams they played? “Why would we want to do that?” I hear some of you say. Because the results are not always the same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting the predicted score for now). What else can we consider to improve the home win prediction? We can look at the performance of all home win tips created for the same competition in which the match is being played and then make a judgment based on this new information. This is great because it gives us an extra level of factoring that we didn’t have before.
Looking at all home win predictions in one league gives us the home win percentage for that league, but we can make it even better. We can do this by doing the exact same drill in many different leagues and getting the success percentage for each league. This means we can now search for the league that produces the best overall home win prediction success rate and search for home win predictions for upcoming matches. By default, we know that this league is more likely to produce a successful result for a home prediction than any other. Of course, we can also use this technique for away wins and draws.
How tight is the league?:
Why does this difference between leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of a single game, there are many factors that make up this phenomenon, but there are only a few main factors that go into why one league should produce more home wins per season than another. The most obvious of these could be described as the “tightness” of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? In any league, there is often a skill and ability gap between the teams consistently at the top of the league and the teams at the bottom, often expressed as a “class gap”. This difference in class varies greatly between different leagues, with some leagues being much more competitive than others due to the tighter skill level across the league, the “tight league”. In a tight league, the instances of draws will be more noticeable than in a “not so tight league” and home wins will most likely be lower.
So let’s say we’re interested in predicting a home win, armed with our new information about the “tightness” of the leagues, we could make predictions for matches over the course of the season for as many leagues as we can handle, and see how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success rate of predictions will closely match the “tightness” of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins we will have more success with our home predictions. Don’t get me wrong, this doesn’t mean that just because there are more home wins we are obliged to be more accurate, I’m talking about the success percentage in the number of home predictions made, which has no direct bearing. to do with how many real home wins there are. For example, say we make one hundred home predictions in League A and one hundred in League B, and let’s say seventy-five percent are correct in League A, but only sixty percent in League B. We made the same number of predictions in each league with different results and these differences are most likely due to the “tightness” of each league. League B will be a “tight” league with more teams with similar “class” levels, while League A has a wider class in terms of teams in it. Therefore, we should select the best performing league in terms of home wins and from that league select our home wins.
We must be consistent:
Of course there is more. It’s no good taking every tip and recording how it went, we need to apply the same rules to every tip made. You need to make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (eg Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose the best settings for each method and stick with them for each prediction, for each league and for the entire season. You need to do this to maintain prediction consistency within leagues, between leagues and over time. There is nothing stopping you from using several different sets of parameters as long as you keep the data created from each separately.
If you’re wondering what the parameters are, take the Rateform method as an example. Using this method, we create an integer that represents the possible match result (I won’t go into the details of the Rateform method here, as that is the subject of another of my articles). You can set breakpoints that represent a home win and an away win, so if the final rate for a match is higher than the upper breakpoint, the match can be considered a home win. Similarly, if the resulting odds output for a match is lower than the lower break point, that match can be considered an away win. Anything that falls in between is considered a draw.
Footyforecast.com (now 1X2Monster.com) has been providing this kind of information week after week on their website since 1999. They cover eighteen leagues across Europe including; English Premier League, Scottish Premier League, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, Dutch Eredivisie, Spain, France to name a few. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record is kept of how each method performed in each game. In addition to how each tip has performed in their respective league, Footyforecast also provides league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting match results. Prediction performance league tables are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions and overall predictions and are invaluable tools for football punters when deciding where to target their European football predictions.
So there you have it. I hope I’ve shown you how to focus on the best leagues to increase your chances of success in predicting 1X2 results, and although I make no guarantees, I’m pretty sure this method will improve your profits.
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