How Many Times India Won Cricket World Cup Indian World Cup Win No Fluke, Suggests Flash Cricket Simulator

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Indian World Cup Win No Fluke, Suggests Flash Cricket Simulator

Earlier this year, the Indian cricket team won the 2011 edition of the Cricket World Cup. Although India were the leading favorites in the tournament, cricket is a sport where any top team can beat any other on its day. Thanks to the existence of online cricket simulators, we can try to determine what the odds were of India winning and how other placements should have gone.

ODI CricSim is a flash cricket simulator that determines match outcomes by aggregating over 200 variables from each player’s current world career, including the average length of a batsman’s innings, the chance of hitting a four or a six on any given ball, that of the shooter. bump rate and tire economy rate. For this experiment I used the ODI CricSim engine to run 1000 simulated World Cups based on the quarter-final rankings of various teams. The teams for each match were the same as the teams in the actual world, and in cases where a simulated team advanced when their actual world counterpart did not, the quarter-final team was used for their next match.

The results were as follows:

First Quarter Final – Pakistan vs West Indies:

Pakistan 572
West Indies 428

Second Quarter-Final – India vs Australia:

India 576
Australia 424

Third quarter-final – New Zealand v South Africa:

New Zealand 399
South Africa 601

Fourth quarter – Sri Lanka vs England:

Sri Lanka 568
England 432

The results from these quarter-final matches suggest that New Zealand beating South Africa was the biggest shock of this stage of the tournament. South Africa were the only losing team that the simulator suggested should have won. In fact, South Africa were the team with the highest simulated odds of winning their quarter-final, which will add more heartbreak to Proteas fans who thought this tournament was a great chance for their team to break their Cricket World Cup duck.

First semi-final:

There were four possible matches for this semi-final, and the following were the predicted odds that the match in question would have resulted in:

New Zealand v England (172 replays)
New Zealand v Sri Lanka (same as current world) (227 replays)
South Africa v England (260 replays)
South Africa v Sri Lanka (341 overs)

The simulator results were as follows:

New Zealand v England: NZL 105, ENG 67.
New Zealand v Sri Lanka: NZL 134, SRL 93.
South Africa v England: SAF 181, ENG 79.
South Africa v Sri Lanka: SAF 180, SRL 161.

Second semi-final:

There were four possible matches for this semi-final, and the following were the predicted odds that the match in question would have resulted in:

India vs West Indies (247 replays)
India vs Pakistan (same as current world) (329 replays)
Australia v West Indies (181 overs)
Australia v Pakistan (243 replays)

The simulator results were as follows:

India v West Indies: IND 197, WIN 50.
India v Pakistan: IND 238, PAK 91.
Australia v West Indies: AUS 138, WIN 43.
Australia v Pakistan: AUS 186, PAK 57.

Final:

There were sixteen possible matches for the final, and the following were the predicted odds that the match in question would have resulted in:

India vs South Africa (157 overs)
India vs Sri Lanka (same as current world) (110 replays)
India v New Zealand (104 overs)
India v England (64 overs)
Australia v South Africa (117 replays)
Australia v Sri Lanka (82 overs)
Australia v New Zealand (78 replays)
Australia v England (47 replays)
Pakistan v South Africa (53 overs)
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (38 overs)
Pakistan v New Zealand (35 overs)
Pakistan v England (22 replays)
West Indies v South Africa (34 overs)
West Indies v Sri Lanka (24 overs)
West Indies v New Zealand (22 overs)
West Indies v England (13 replays)

The simulator results were as follows:

India v South Africa: IND 98, SAF 59.
India v Sri Lanka: IND 69, SRL 41.
India v New Zealand: IND 63, NZL 41.
India v England: IND 54, ENG 10.
Australia v South Africa: AUS 65, SAF 52.
Australia v Sri Lanka: AUS 57, SRL 25.
Australia v New Zealand: AUS 47, NZL 31.
Australia v England: AUS 37, ALB 10.
Pakistan v South Africa: PAK 22, SAF 31.
Pakistan v Sri Lanka: PAK 19, SRL 19.
Pakistan v New Zealand: PAK 14, NZL 21.
Pakistan v England: PAK 12, ALB 9.
West Indies v South Africa: WIN 13, SAF 21.
West Indies v Sri Lanka: WIN, SRL 14.
West Indies v New Zealand: WIN 8, NZL 14.
West Indies v England: WIN 6, ALB 7.

These results give the following percentage chances of winning the 2011 Cricket World Cup, given the quarter-final seeding and assuming the simulator is accurate:

India 28.5%
Australia 20.6%
South Africa 16.3%
New Zealand 10.7%
Sri Lanka 9.9%
Pakistan 6.7%
West Indies 3.7%
England 3.6%

It is important to note here that these rankings do not reflect the relative merits of each team, but rather their chances of winning the tournament given their quarterfinal seeding and eventual opponents in the semifinals and finals. Perhaps disappointingly for the tournament itself, the two top teams met each other at the quarter-final stage, robbing them of what would have been a titanic final between the eventual champions and the three-time defending champions.

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