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ICC World Cup 2011: Which Batsman Can India Rely On To Lead The Chase
Had India reached the final of the ICC FIFA World Cup 2011 and won the toss, would they choose to bat first or bowl first.
Let’s see if statistics can help us make a decision. Overall, India have played 754 ODIs, winning 366 and losing 351, with a positive win-loss ratio of 1.04. India first performed better in bowling, winning 204 and losing 169; batting first, they won 162 and lost 182. Of the 201 times they won the toss in 366 wins, India chose to bat first on 114 occasions, preferring to bat first in only 87 matches.
These numbers would lead us to believe that India are better off chasing the target. How did they race at the last world championships? And which batsmen were good at chasing in tight matches? For the purposes of this article, I would define a tiebreaker as a match that, if lost, would prevent a team from advancing to the next stage or the next stage.
Therefore, a group match, the result of which would not in itself prevent a team from advancing to the next round, would not qualify as an important match under this definition. In addition, a round-robin match or a match whose result may be settled at the next stage of the Super Six or Super Eight will qualify as a knockout match. Under this definition, every 1992 World Cup game would qualify as a milestone match, while matches against teams that eventually qualified for the 1999 World Cup Super Six Rounds would also count as milestone matches.
India had two opportunities to chase in the first World Cup, one against minnows East Africa and the other against England, in the previous group. They won the first and lost the second, but neither was a decisive match as India could have qualified by beating New Zealand in the third match, which they did not. By the way, India batted first against New Zealand.
In the 1979 edition, India had an opportunity to chase against Sri Lanka, which they lost. If they had won, they would have qualified for the knockout round. So this qualifies as a critical match lost.
India won the World Cup in 1983. In the semi-final against England, they chased down a target of 214 and won a thrilling match by 6 wickets.
Four years later, the sides met again in the semi-final in Mumbai and it was England’s turn to win. Set a target of 255, India were bowled out for 219.
In the 1992 cup in Australia, in a round-robin format in which each team played each, India had only one chance to chase, again against England. England scored 236/9 in their allotted fifty overs and India were bowled out for 227 with four balls to spare. It was the earliest World Cup to feature a modern batsman in Sachin Tendulkar. Tendulkar bowled 35 off 44 balls, which can be considered a good contribution in a low-scoring match.
In the 1996 World Cup, India faced Sri Lanka in a crucial semi-final match in Kolkata. To win, India collapsed to 120/8 in 34.1; the match was awarded to Sri Lanka after crowd disturbances at the Eden Gardens prevented further play. Tendulkar was the only batting success for India; he made 65.
The 1999 event, held in England, gave India two opportunities to chase. The first match against Zimbabwe resulted in a three-run defeat for India, who were chasing 253 to win. The last three wickets fell in the space of one over. Dravid was the only modern batsman to feature in this match and he scored 13 off 14 balls.In the same tournament, India faced Australia in a Super Six match; Set on 283 to win, India collapsed to 205 all out. Tendulkar failed to open his account in four innings while Dravid took 2 off 6 balls.
In the 2003 final, India’s chase ended in the final after Ganguly decided to win the toss. Australia set India a daunting target of 360. In the 40th over, India were bowled out for 234. Sehwag scored 82 off 81 balls while Dravid got 47 off 57. Tendulkar disappointed with 4 off 5 balls.
The 2007 World Cup was hosted by the West Indies and India pulled off a dramatic chase against Sri Lanka in a do-or-die affair in the previous group stage. Sri Lanka scored 254/6 and in reply India were bowled out for 185. The match featured five modern batsmen. Tendulkar failed to open his account while Yuvraj took 6 off 12 balls and Dhoni was out on the first ball he got. Sehwag’s 48 off 47 balls and Dravid’s 60 off 82 were the lifelines.
To recap, barring the semi-final against England in 1983, India failed to win all the other chases in the ODI World Cups. I have a feeling that at the ICC World Cup 2011, the terrible record will be overturned. And based on past performances, which batsman can be relied upon in such a pressure cooker situation? My vote goes to Dravid. But wait, he might not even play in the 2011 edition!
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