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Sports Arbitrage Trading – A Practical Minicourse – Part Three
How to find an orb to trade?
There are 2 factors that determine the possibility of an arbitrage trade
1. An event must have a limited number of possible outcomes
The event you are betting on should ideally have 2 or 3 possible outcomes.
For example, an event could be a one-on-one competition, such as a tennis or snooker match, where only one player can win. Or you can consider a cricket or football match where there are three possible outcomes including draw/draw.
There are exceptions when orbs become available in events with more than three results, and they can be very profitable, but the most common orbs you’ll find in events are as described above.
2. There should be an appropriate percentage margin in your favor
When you’re starting out, it’s probably best to limit your bets to opportunities that yield 2.0% or more. This will give you a margin for error as you learn, and any mistakes will likely just lead to a break-even situation where you may have to sacrifice your profits.
However, as you grow in experience, you will be able to consider ALL situations, including the many THOUSANDS of 1%-2% opportunities that occur each month. While the juicier 8%-15% arbs that appear a few times a week will give you great bonuses, the smaller ones that are much more frequent will consistently increase your profits.
So that’s all. You find the event, count, place bets and get a guaranteed profit regardless of the result. Once you’ve streamlined your processes, it couldn’t be much easier.
The trick is finding the right events to bet on. You can learn more about this below.
There are many arbitrage events available, but below is a short list of the ones you are strongly encouraged to check out.
- TENNIS
With only two possible outcomes, this is the perfect event. The more obscure the tournament, the greater the chance of finding profitable differences of opinion between the bookies. Most of the listed bookmakers regularly offer prices for all tennis matches. You will likely find a significant number of arbs in tennis. - SNOOKER
Again, with only two possible outcomes, snooker is an ideal competition for arbitrage opportunities, although bets can sometimes be limited to just a few hundred pounds by the bookies.
- CRICKET
One-day matches involve only two results, while a draw is also allowed in the winter tour. Cricket seems to be a soft spot for many bookmakers; a fact which often results in some large percentages of arb.
- US FOOTBALL
Division championships can provide several lucrative arbs. After a few games, there can be very large discrepancies between sportsbooks. It is also often the case that North American oddsmakers take a very different view than their European counterparts, creating more opportunities for arbitrage - GOLF
Golf produces many arbs each week in 18-hole 2-ball and 3-ball matches, as well as 72-hole matches. Also, in match games such as the Dunhill Cup and the World Match Play Championship, participants are paired up and can only win or lose. Markets in these events can be quite volatile and produce many arbs. - FOOTBALL
European matches are worth following every week during the football season as they can create several profitable opportunities. One of the advantages of betting on football compared to many other sports is the very large size of bets accepted by bookmakers. look out for arb not only in the regular home, away, draw markets but also in the asian handicap and total goals market - POLITICS AND ENTERTAINMENT
Whether it’s the next US president or the next person to leave Big Brother, if there’s room for disagreement between the oddsmakers, there’s potential for arbitrage. Very large margins can be made on these non-sports events because the bookies have to guess much more than in sports. - OTHER SPORTS If you are looking for risk-free profits, you should also consider
- boxing
- basketball
- baseball
- hockey
- ice hockey
If you are going to search for arb manually, you should be prepared to spend a lot of time and effort browsing individual bookmaker sites and odds comparison sites in search of prices. In some cases this can be useful, but it makes much more sense to use software for this task, as it is much faster and frees you from other tasks.
So, now that you know what to look for, let’s see how top-of-the-market software can help you…
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PROFIT INCREASE
There is no doubt that if you use sports arbitrage software correctly, you will make much more profit than without it. As well as automatically finding arbitrage trades for you, it should also detect intermediate trades and even alert you to trades that you can use to pay out bonuses pending at your bookies. -
SAVING TIME
Using the software will help you save a lot of time. When you can rely on the software to do the searching on your behalf, it frees you up from searching elsewhere or doing other things. -
ITEMS FOR OTHER BOARDS
This is an often overlooked advantage, but it’s one that almost every professional trader uses. When the software alerts you to an arbitrage trade, it very often gives you hints about other possible trades. For example, a football arbitrage deal may contain a price that you can use in a betting exchange strategy instead of the arbitrage deal you have been notified of. The key issue is that the software will bring your attention to it faster than any other method of research. Your sports arbitrage software should also allow you to take break-even trades ie. those where the values add up to 100% and this can be used to great effect when using bonus search methods -
EARLY WARNING OF PRICE RELEASES
The best sports arbitrage software allows you to be the first to know when a bookmaker has published new prices on their website. This early warning system can be a great advantage in trading strategies that require analyzing new prices as quickly as possible. -
USEFUL STATISTICS
With the large amount of data it has access to, your software should be able to provide you with very useful statistics. It should be able to show you how many arcs each bookie had in each sport each month. This is very powerful for research as it allows you to see exactly which accounts are most important each month. Many professional traders use this type of analysis to decide where to place their funds ready to trade each month.
In my next article, we’ll look at what we can do to minimize the impact of transaction fees when you trade…
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