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Soccer Betting – The Footyforecast Method
Soccer Betting is a series of articles describing some well-known and commonly used statistical techniques to help soccer fans make more informed bets. Each of the methods has its advantages and disadvantages, and using them separately will increase your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your fight against the bookies. In each article, we’ll detail how a particular method works, giving you enough information to go ahead and create your own predictions. We will also give you information on where you can already find websites that use this method for weekly football betting predictions.
The statistical techniques described in this set of articles should help you make a better decision about the match or matches you are betting on.
In this article we will describe the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for English football pools and tries to eliminate those matches that will not be drawn, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 out of 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 by the original Footyforecast website ( now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the simple sequence method described in another of our articles in this series.
Here are the ground rules…
For each team, determine the following: 1. Compute the total number of points scored in the last N games. 2. Determine the maximum number of points possible in the last N games. 3. Divide the total number of points received by the maximum available and multiply by 100. 4. Calculate the predicted value. In (1) and (2) above, N games can have all home games for the hosts and all away games for the away team. Alternatively, N could be the last N games, including all of the team’s home and away games. Predictive value is calculated as…
HOMEPOINTS = number of points scored by the home team in the last N games
AWAYPOINTS = the number of away team points in the last N games
HOME = (VOKE POINTS / (POINTS PER LOSS * N)) *100
AWAYVAL = (AWAY POINTS / (POINTS WIN * N)) *100
PREDICTION = (HOMEVAL + (100 – AWAYVAL)) / 2
To calculate the possible result of the match based on the FootyForecast method, the value is compared to the following… 1. Prediction value 50 = draw. 2. A value between 50 and 100 increases the odds of a home win closer to 100. 3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increased odds of an away win than closer to 0. There are several variables to consider, such as the number of matches to use and should you use all matches or only home for home and only away for visitors to name just two. You can experiment with these values. By plotting the actual draws against the prediction, two thresholds can be created, one for away wins and one for home wins, anything between these thresholds is likely to be a draw. All matches outside these thresholds are less likely to be a draw. For example, a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean that any match between 41 and 59 could be tied. What this method does, when carefully configured by the user, is eliminate many matches that will not be a draw, leaving you with a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English pool plan is to be used.
Here’s a worked example…
The values shown are the points scored by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, of course you can select more games to base your calculations on. West Ham H4 = 3 (oldest match) H3 = 1 H2 = 1 H1 = 0 (most recent match) Leeds Utd A4 = 1 (oldest match) A3 = 3 A2 = 0 A1 = 3 (most recent match) Use only home games for hosts and only away games for away… FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42 FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59 FFPForcast = (42 + (100 – 59)) / 2 = 42 If our thresholds are 40 and 60, then for this match the forecast is in the expected draw area and at the bottom, which means that if it is not a draw, it is more the other result will be an away win. This can be interpreted as a prediction of X2, ie. a draw or an away win that some bookies will accept as a bet.
Now it’s your turn…
Of course, you can use other values than those shown above, and by experimenting you may find better values to use. You can also use all of each team’s home and away games in your calculations, not just home games for home teams and away games for away teams. You can choose thresholds other than those shown above. You may also find it useful to plot the actual results against the Footyforecast predictions to see how many actual draws fall within the away win, draw and home win prediction zones.
If you have the necessary skills, you can go off and create your own spreadsheet with the data, or even write a score and schedule software and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you’re lazy like me, you can grab a free software that already does it for you. 1X2Monster and Footyforecast have been providing these features since 1999. Seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game in each league, and a complete record of how each method is performed in each game is kept. In addition to how each tip performed in the respective league, 1X2Monster also features league tables that show how successful each league has been in predicting game outcomes. Prediction ranking tables are compiled for home win, draw, away win and overall predictions and are an invaluable tool for football fans when deciding where to target their European football betting predictions.
Here is a list of all the articles in this series…
Soccer Betting – How to Profit Soccer Betting – Rateform Method Soccer Betting – Footyforecast Method Soccer Betting – Win, Draw & Loss Method Soccer Betting – Simple Sequence Method Soccer Betting – Result Prediction Method Soccer Betting – Advantage Method
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