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Football (Soccer) Betting Tip – How to Win in International Friendlies
Nothing is at stake in international friendlies. These games have some significance only when used as a warm-up before crucial competitions such as the World Cup.
Most club managers find these friendlies a complete nuisance. Some of them fight tooth and nail with the country manager by refusing to release their star players. There are many cases of players returning with injuries which greatly endanger the chances of clubs in the league and other competitions. The ‘club vs. country’ debate is always contentious.
The conventional wisdom is to avoid betting on these friendlies as they are seen as meaningless. The results are often unpredictable. But a smart player can find value in uncertainties.
The following factors can be considered:
1. The Intimidating Country Home Advantage
Countries like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, etc., are not the most comfortable places to visit. How do you expect soccer superstars to enjoy themselves:
a) Long flights (some countries do not have direct flight connections).
b) Less than hygienic living environment and food.
c) Strange customs (especially if the country is of a predominantly different religion).
d) Climate (it cannot be easy to travel long distances from the cold winter in Europe to play in a humid stadium in Turkey on a summer night).
It’s kind of hard to expect motivation when games are considered meaningless. However, keep in mind:
a) The home team may be more motivated as they are playing for their country in front of their own fans.
b) The game is more likely to be televised live, especially if the home team plays a highly ranked away team such as England. So the home team will be super busy.
c) Due to the live telecast, this is a good opportunity especially for players from an ‘obscure’ country to showcase their talent, hoping to attract the attention of the sporting talents of the big European clubs.
d) The game is used to restore national pride. If the country has been beaten badly by their opponent in a previous game, there may be motivation to treat the game as a revenge match.
3. Formation of the team
Don’t expect the top players to feature in these friendlies. Most clubs are reluctant to release their star players for fear of returning injured or tired. So most of the players selected are often the second players and they themselves may not do everything in order to reduce the risk of injury.
When most teams play carefully, it will be a boring match most of the time.
Most players are only familiar with the same few famous national teams. Countries they have hardly heard of will automatically be considered ‘not good’. However, since the results of these friendlies are unpredictable, the smart player can spot great value in some weak players, especially when playing at home.
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